BITCOIN1/3/09
Genesis block — 1/3/09 — Block #0
| "The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"
📩 Bitcoin1/3/09 Alerts
// CURRENT STATUS
ACTIVE SIGNAL
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NEXT HALVING COUNTDOWN
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Days
:
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Hours
:
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Mins
Est. Next Halving — —
Block 1,050,000 | Reward: 1.5625 BTC
Block 1,050,000 | Reward: 1.5625 BTC
// ON-CHAIN & MARKET INDICATORS
MVRV Z-Score
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Market Value vs Realized Value Z-Score (Coinmetrics). >7 = cycle top zone. Near/below 0 = cycle bottom.
CBBI Score
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Composite Bitcoin Bull Run Index. >80 = bear zone. <15 = bull zone.
NUPL (APPROX)
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Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (approximated via CBBI). >0.75 euphoria (top). <0 capitulation (bottom).
Weekly RSI
Weekly
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14-period weekly RSI. >70 overbought. <30 oversold. Updates every 5 mins.
Fear & Greed Index
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Crypto market sentiment, 0–100. Extreme fear = potential bull zone. Extreme greed = potential bear zone.
Pi Cycle Top
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Fires when the 111-day SMA crosses above the 350-day SMA × 2 (350/111 ≈ π). Has historically called cycle tops within ~3 days.
Puell Multiple
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Daily miner issuance value ÷ 365-day average. <0.5 = miner capitulation (bottom). >3.33 = miner over-profitability (selling pressure).
Hash Ribbons
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30-day vs 60-day hash rate SMA. A ribbon inversion has marked miner capitulation near bottoms; the recovery cross has been a strong buy signal.
Strategy:
BUY 500 days before each halving.
SELL and enter an unleveraged (or with leverage) short 500 days after the halving.
Cover short & BUY again 500 days before the next halving. Repeat.
— This strategy has historically captured Bitcoin's four-year cycle momentum while managing downside exposure during the post-halving cool-off period.
// HISTORICAL CYCLE PERFORMANCE
BULL MARKETS — BUY SIGNAL (+500 DAYS)
| Cycle | Halving Date | Buy Date | Buy Price | Sell Date | Sell Price | Return (Bull) | Hold Days |
|---|
BEAR MARKETS — SELL & SHORT SIGNAL (NO LEVERAGE)
| Cycle | Short Entry Date | Entry Price | Cover Date | Cover Price | Return (Short) | Hold Days | Status |
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